India-US Trade Deal by July: Six Stocks With the Most at Stake
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said this week that the first tranche of an India-US trade deal could be finalized by July. For months, Indian exporters have been absorbing punishing tariffs — ranging from 25% to as high as 69% on some goods — that have dented margins, delayed orders, and shaved billions off export revenues. A deal would be transformative. We combed through company filings to find the six stocks with the strongest evidence of tariff pain today and recovery potential tomorrow.
1. Pearl Global Industries (PGIL) — The Garment Exporter Bearing the Brunt
No company in our filing database has quantified tariff damage as precisely as Pearl Global. In their Q3 FY26 earnings call, management disclosed a tariff cost impact of Rs 31 crores for the quarter alone. At their worst, total duties on Indian cotton garments shipped to the US reached 65-69%, combining MFN duties, a 25% reciprocal tariff, and a 25% penalty tariff on top.
Despite this, Pearl Global crossed Rs 5,000 crores in FY26 revenue with an EBITDA of Rs 468 crores (9.3% margin). Q1 FY26 revenue hit Rs 1,228 crores — a 16.6% year-on-year increase. Management noted that excluding tariff costs and new facility losses, adjusted EBITDA margins were approximately 10.7%. A trade deal that brings the effective tariff down to 18% — as was partially implemented — would directly add back Rs 100+ crores annually to the bottom line, per their FY26 investor presentation.
2. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNPHARMA) — Largest Revenue Segment Is the US
Sun Pharma's annual report reveals that the United States is actually their single largest revenue market — bigger than India. Per their FY24 annual report, US revenue stood at Rs 158,856 million versus India at Rs 153,968 million, out of a total consolidated revenue of Rs 477,585 million. That puts US exposure at approximately 33% of total revenue. Sun Pharma is the 10th largest generics company and 2nd by prescriptions in US dermatology. While pharma has faced lower tariffs than goods like textiles or auto parts, any trade deal that smooths regulatory and market-access friction would benefit Sun's specialty pipeline, which is its key growth driver in the US.
3. Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRREDDY) — $1.57 Billion North America Business
Dr. Reddy's reported record-high revenues exceeding $3.8 billion for FY25, with North America contributing $1,568 million on a full-year basis — roughly 41% of total revenue, per their Q4 FY25 earnings call transcript. The company currently has 73 filings pending USFDA approval, including 70 ANDAs (of which 22 may have 'First to File' status). Q1 FY26 North America revenue came in at Rs 34.1 billion, though it faced an 11% YoY decline due to price erosion on Lenalidomide. A stronger trade relationship that accelerates FDA review timelines or reduces non-tariff barriers could unlock significant value from this deep pipeline.
4. Bharat Forge (BHARATFORG) — Export Pain Is Already in the Price
Bharat Forge's filings paint the clearest picture of tariff damage in the auto components space. Their Q2 FY26 investor presentation disclosed that CV (commercial vehicle) exports to North America were down 48% on a sequential basis and 67% year-on-year. Chairman B.N. Kalyani stated in the Q1 FY26 presentation that the company is "cautious on the outlook for the US export business" given tariff uncertainty, with a specific tariff cost impact of Rs 31 crores in Q3 FY26.
The good news: Q4 FY26 showed a rebound, with export revenue rising to Rs 10,844 million from Rs 9,097 million in Q3, driven by inventory restocking and a recovery in North American truck production volumes. Full-year FY26 standalone revenue was Rs 83,958 million. A trade deal would accelerate this recovery and remove the policy overhang that has weighed on the stock.
5. Cipla (CIPLA) — 24% North America Exposure and Growing
Cipla's FY26 annual report shows North America contributing 24% of total revenue. The company filed 10 new applications with the USFDA during FY25-26, strengthening a pipeline focused on respiratory inhalation products, peptide-based injectables, and complex generics. Cipla holds a 1.57% share of the US generics market with a top-20 ranking. Their strategic focus on gVentolin, gSymbicort, and gAdvair launches positions them to capture significant share in respiratory — the largest US generics segment. Smoother trade relations would support faster market access for these pipeline products.
6. Avanti Feeds (AVANTIFEED) — Shrimp Exports Face a Tariff Triple-Whammy
Avanti Feeds operates in one of the most tariff-exposed segments: shrimp exports to the US. Per their FY25 earnings call transcript, Indian shrimp exports face anti-dumping duties of 1.35%, plus the baseline 10% reciprocal tariff, plus country-specific duties. Management disclosed that they proactively informed all US customers about tariff changes, and "most of the customers have responded positively to the overall 10% price increase." The company expedited shipments before the May 21, 2025 deadline and is diversifying into Japan and EU markets. A formal trade deal would provide certainty on duty structures that has been missing since April 2025.
What Retail Investors Should Do
The India-US trade deal is not a done deal yet — Section 301 investigations are still ongoing, and the final tariff rates remain uncertain. But the direction is clear: both governments want an agreement, and July is the target. For investors, the playbook is straightforward:
- Pharma (Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy's, Cipla) already has significant US revenue and faces the least tariff risk. A deal is a modest positive that removes regulatory uncertainty — these are lower-risk, lower-reward plays.
- Auto components (Bharat Forge) and textiles (Pearl Global) have been directly hit by tariffs and have quantified the damage in filings. These stocks have the most recovery potential if duties come down, but also carry more risk if talks stall.
- Seafood (Avanti Feeds) is a niche but meaningful beneficiary — high tariff sensitivity and active customer pass-through suggest quick earnings recovery once certainty returns.
Data sourced from company filings on NSE via Xaro.