US Proposes 12.5% Tariff on India: Which Exporters Have the Most at Stake

The US announced a proposed 12.5% tariff on imports from India this week, even as both sides describe their bilateral trade deal as "99% complete." The tariff, part of a broader action covering over 50 countries and citing forced labour concerns, lands at a sensitive moment — Indian markets traded flat all week in anticipation of RBI's policy decision, and exporters are already navigating an unpredictable tariff landscape.

For retail investors, the question is simple: which companies earn the most from the US, and how prepared are they? We went through earnings calls and annual reports of India's biggest exporters to find out.

Apex Frozen Foods (APEX): Half Its Revenue Comes From the US

Apex Frozen Foods is perhaps the most directly exposed company on the NSE. Per its Q3 FY26 earnings call, the US accounted for approximately 49% of the company's revenue over the first nine months of the fiscal year. The company exports 100% of its finished frozen shrimp to the US, EU, and China.

The impact is already visible. In Q3 FY26, sales volumes declined 5% year-on-year to 2,754 metric tons, with US sales specifically falling 12% year-on-year. Management noted that "post this tariff announcement, we are back to [2022 price] numbers" and that "customers are continuing to buy considering that the tariff rates will be at 10%, but post-90 days, we need to see how the trade deal is going to happen."

A 22% year-on-year jump in EU sales helped offset some of the US weakness, but with roughly half of revenues at risk, any escalation beyond the current 10% tariff would squeeze an already thin 3.3% PAT margin (FY23).

Avanti Feeds (AVANTIFEED): Margins Already Crushed by Countervailing Duty

Avanti Feeds doesn't just face the new tariff proposal — it's already reeling from the US countervailing duty (CVD) on Indian shrimp. In Q1 FY26, shrimp processing revenue grew an impressive 59% year-on-year to Rs 3,712 million, but EBITDA margins collapsed to 9% from 15% a year earlier, "primarily due to countervailing duty and higher raw material prices," per its quarterly results.

In Q4 FY25, the pattern was similar: processing revenue rose 22% but EBITDA margins fell to 8% from 14%, again due to CVD. The company is diversifying hard — its EU sales share surged to 51% of processing revenue in Q2 FY25, up from 40% the prior year. Management is also pivoting toward value-added, ready-to-eat products that command better margins.

An additional 12.5% tariff on top of the existing CVD would further compress an already deteriorating margin profile.

Gokaldas Exports (GOKEX): Apparel's $10 Billion Problem

India exports roughly $10.3 billion worth of textiles and apparel to the US annually, making it the single largest destination for the sector. Gokaldas Exports, one of India's leading garment manufacturers, told analysts that Indian goods already face an "underlying tariff ranging anywhere between 14% to 32%" when entering the US — and any reciprocal tariff adds on top of that.

Management acknowledged that "brands are cautious and want to know the tariff impact on various geographies for committing their orders" but argued that "India has a large export business of $16 billion per annum" in textiles and "it's impossible for any brand to find alternative solutions for this volume elsewhere in the short run."

The wildcard: African producers. Kenya exports duty-free to the US under the AGOA framework, giving it a structural cost advantage that Indian apparel simply cannot match if tariffs escalate.

Aarti Industries (AARTIIND): 15-20% US Exposure in Specialty Chemicals

Aarti Industries, one of India's largest benzene-based specialty chemical manufacturers, disclosed that 15-20% of its business comes from the US. In its most recent earnings call, management noted that "the tariff landscape continues to remain unpredictable, compounding the already challenging global trade dynamics and leading to sustained pressure on product pricing and profitability."

The company has been sharing the tariff burden with customers — an arrangement that protects volumes but compresses margins. With over 100 products sold to 1,100+ global customers, the impact is spread across multiple product lines rather than concentrated in one, giving Aarti some diversification benefit.

Fairchem Organics (FAIRCHEMOR): 50% Tariff, but Only 9% Exposure

Fairchem Organics faces a striking headline: a 50% US tariff on certain Indian chemical products. But context matters. During its earnings call, management clarified that "the total export contribution is 9% of the revenue" and US exposure specifically is a fraction of that. The practical impact on Fairchem's overall business is limited, though it signals the kind of targeted, punitive tariffs that could expand to other product categories.

The Silver Lining: Goldiam International (GOLDIAM)

Not every exporter is bracing for pain. Goldiam International, a lab-grown and natural diamond jewelry exporter, discussed what could be a transformative development from the India-US trade deal framework. According to management's earnings call, the proposed deal would reduce the import duty on jewelry from 50% to 18% and eliminate duty on loose gems and diamonds entirely.

"50% has moved to 18%, which is a huge benefit," management told analysts. If the trade deal closes as described, this would be one of the most significant tariff reductions for any Indian export sector — turning a potential threat into a competitive windfall.

What Retail Investors Should Do

The 12.5% tariff proposal is not yet final, and the "99% complete" trade deal adds a layer of uncertainty. But the filings are clear on which companies carry the most US revenue risk:

Watch the trade deal timeline closely. The gap between a punitive 12.5% tariff and a deal that slashes jewelry duties from 50% to 18% shows just how binary the outcome could be for Indian exporters.

Data sourced from company filings on NSE via Xaro.